Boom or Bust: The High Stakes of Knights' $13M Gamble
Dylan Brown's $13 million Newcastle contract is perhaps the biggest contract gamble in NRL history.
If the Knights succeed, they will have a chance to win the premiership when Kalyn Ponga is still in his prime.
However, Newcastle will be condemned for the next decade if it fails due to annual salary cap constraints and depth difficulties.
Brown's record-breaking 10-year contract is a transparent attempt by club management to elevate the Knights from the bottom of the eight to a credible title contender.
It's also an opportunity to persuade Ponga that he can win a title with the Knights, as the fullback will be a free agent in November and is expected to attract much attention.
It is no secret that Newcastle has had half of its troubles.
In 2024, they went through six different combinations and never kept the same coupling for more than four weeks.
The jury is out on whether Brown can be the solution.
The Parramatta five-eighth, who earns $1.3 million per season, is anticipated to wear the No.7 in Newcastle next year.
The main issue is that Brown has yet to show his ability to be the primary playmaker.
He is two-for-10 as a starting halfback, and Parramatta's 2024 season fell apart with him at No.7 when Mitch Moses was ill.
Despite spending the bulk of 2024 without Moses, only five other halves or five-eighths kicked less than Brown last season.
"Dylan is a No.6," Newcastle legend Matt Johns stated on his Matty and Cronk podcast.
"Dylan can significantly impact a game, but he requires someone to help him control it.
"Currently, he is a reactive player, a deputy, and a pure number six. A hell of a player. But he's a No. 6, not a No. 7."
There is a counterpoint to this, with the current game favoring running halves and a lack of actual organizers.
"(Running) has to be your first line of thought," the game's top playmaker Nathan Cleary told 100% Footy.
"Especially in massive games, you lose half the team in those back-and-forth games because everyone is exhausted.
"The runs become much more explosive; you're up against exhausted forwards, so the fast players and the more petite men enter the game.
"I appreciate how square Dylan plays. I believe it will free up much space for Kalyn at the back, and he and Kalyn might become a formidable duo."
The length of the contract is also an important consideration, with contracts lasting more than five years being significantly less common in the NRL than in the AFL.
Daly Cherry-Evans is one of the few individuals to finish a 'lifetime' contract playing as well as he did at the start, but that still left Manly with a top-heavy wage cap.
Jason Taumalolo's body is damaged and bruised eight seasons into his ten-year contract, while Tino Fa'asuamaleaui and Haumole Olakau'atu's long-term contracts are still too early to evaluate.
Reagan Campbell-Gillard similarly left Penrith after only 12 months into a six-season contract, while Brown's departure from Parramatta occurred despite signing an agreement in 2022 that could have extended until 2031.
Brown's move to Newcastle dominated rugby league news on Tuesday, but players sent a clear message.
"Everyone in his shoes would be taking that deal," Manly five-eighth Luke Brooks said, himself no stranger to the weight of expectation.
"You're the highest-paid player in the game, so there's a lot of pressure.
"I feel like he's a bloke that it doesn't seem like pressure gets to him."