Trump administration's inconsistent foreign policy sparks global uncertainty

A damaged windscreen caused US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's jet, on its way to the Munich Security Conference, to do an abrupt U-turn an hour into the trip.

On Thursday night, America's top diplomat, senior officials, and members of the traveling press returned to Andrews Air Force Base near Washington, DC.

Despite the mid-air scare, the news was already focused elsewhere. In Europe, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth surprised America's friends with a speech outlining what many regarded as a series of concessions Ukraine would have to make to sign any peace accord with Russia mediated by President Trump.

Hegseth said it was "unrealistic" to expect Ukraine to reclaim its sovereign territory held by Russia, as well as its demand for NATO membership, and that it was up to European, not US, forces to protect the peace.

Critics, including some Republicans in Washington, slammed the speech, claiming it gave up all of Ukraine's influence ahead of any negotiations. They said that the US had capitulated to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"It's certainly an innovative approach to a negotiation to make very major concessions even before they have started," said former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt, who co-chairs the European Council on Foreign Relations, a think group.

The next day, Hegseth took back some of what he had said. He clarified that Trump might still utilize these alternatives as leverage between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

"What he decides to allow or not allow is at the purview of the leader of the free world, President Trump," according to Hegseth. However, he clarified that he was "simply pointing out realism" and denied making any unfair concessions to Moscow.

Rubio's arrival in Munich, where his officials were briefing him on his personal travel goals, was delayed due to the broken-down plane.

The US will work for a "just and lasting peace," with European countries taking the lead in developing a "durable security framework," they stated.

European leaders are due to gather in Paris on Monday for urgent talks to ensure that their countries fully participate in any Ukraine peace talks.

The US secretary of state's position included no mention of setting limitations for Ukraine, as the defense secretary had done. Then, in the German city, Vice President JD Vance claimed the US might use "military tools of leverage" to persuade Russia to reach an agreement, appearing to contradict Hegseth's statement that no US troops would be deployed to Ukraine.

Later in the Oval Office, the repercussions of Hegseth's speech were discussed with President Trump, as well as the opinion of a Republican senator who called it a "rookie mistake" that could have been written by a pro-Putin pundit.

Had Trump been informed of what Hegseth was about to say? "Generally speaking, yeah, generally speaking I was," the president replied. "I'll speak to Pete and find out," he continued.

The three days of back-and-forth provided some of the first significant insights into Trump's evolving position on one of the most pressing issues he faces - Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and his promise to end the war - as well as how his administration is formulating and messaging its foreign policy.

On substance, Hegseth's speech, combined with Trump's lengthy statement about an apparently friendly phone contact with Putin aimed at restarting negotiations with Ukraine, sent shockwaves across European capitals despite Hegseth's attempts to back down.

"Any quick fix is a dirty deal," said European Union foreign policy leader Kaja Kallas, referring to the possibility of a US-led compromise with Russia that would leave Ukraine's voice out.

Then there's the question of how US foreign policy under Trump was articulated. What transpired in Munich was an attempt by his senior officials to understand and communicate Trump's opinions. Still, that effort resulted in explosive and often contradictory pronouncements, some of which were later reduced or reversed.

It is unclear how much of this is the result of a new but ill-coordinated administration still determining which lines to take internally, as opposed to a deliberate feature of a presidency less concerned with officials freelancing with rhetoric, even if it causes some confusion, as long as they remain loyal to his final word.

During Trump's first term, a number of high-profile officials who disagreed with him were fired or resigned, including three national security advisers, two defense secretaries, and a secretary of state.

This time, his appointments have been marked more regularly by a willingness to demonstrate allegiance. Pete Hegseth, a Fox News weekend host and former National Guard major, has no prior experience directing a military, government, or agency and entirely agrees with Trump's ideas and objectives.

His appointment was hotly debated and stalled during the confirmation process, with three Republican senators voting against him, resulting in a 50-50 tie with JD Vance providing the deciding vote.

Trump stated last week that he was "OK" with removing Ukraine's membership in NATO off the negotiating table, calling it "not practical".

Hegseth's remarks were scarcely out of line with the president's position; instead, they were an amplification of it for an audience eager to strengthen, not undermine, Ukraine's bargaining position.

Those affected face the task of defining the precise position of US foreign policy. One of its characteristics is uncertainty. Donald Trump's use of the "madman" idea of global affairs, which is typically attributed to former Republican President Richard Nixon, could be deliberate.

This shows that being powerful but unpredictable might help allies stay close while coercing foes. It would also explain a perception of his staffers going rogue while remaining inside the parameters of Trump's widely accepted ideas.

However, as the name implies, this theory poses significant dangers of error or miscalculation in an already violent and uncertain world.

Trump's recent suggestions for Gaza, which include displacing the Palestinian population in order to establish the "Riviera of the Middle East" under US control, were also riddled with ambiguity and contradiction.

While his officials appeared to try to dispute some of his claims, such as "temporary relocation," Trump then doubled down, stating it would be "permanent" with no right of return.

As for Rubio, who wants the State Department to be the most prominent federal agency in Trump's decision-making, his colleagues' remarks in Munich were already overshadowing his.

His tiny replacement plane eventually landed in Europe, with the windscreen intact but no press pool on board, while most of the headlines went elsewhere.